7 Scenarios and multiple futures help policymakers foresee possible inflection points and bring uncertainty into account. This is where scenario-based planning comes into play, to break out of rigid mental frames and open up a discourse among senior leaders about trends, assumptions, and potential shocks. In reality, the signals were drowned by leaders who turned up the volume on comfortable preferences. In retrospect, after a strategic shock, we prefer to construct a script about how signals and vague omens were lost in the noise. Instead of grasping new contexts or potential circumstances that alter our understanding, we tend to project trends as linear plots. 6 Most international shocks were envisioned by someone, warned about, but resolutely ignored. Yet most surprises, as Peter Schwartz has long noted, do not spring forth from unexpected consequences but rather from group denial. This results in strategic and operational surprise. Large institutions, including the Armed Forces, tend to think about the future in linear and evolutionary steps and make implicit assumptions about the next war as merely an extension of the last. 4 Instead of searching for the unknowable Black Swan, smart planners should stop avoiding inconvenient trends that disturb organizational preferences with new challenges and orphan missions, which some call Pink Flamingos. The challenge is to remain engaged with the past but to unshackle leaders from the worst kind of confirmation bias, which assumes that since the future is unknowable, it will be based on what we now know. History is not irrelevant when exploring the future. 3 To posture an institution for the breadth of challenges for which adaptation may be necessary, we have to open up the aperture to potential futures via scenarios posited to test how inclusive or responsive our plans are. The goal in prudent defense planning is to avoid optimization for one world, to plan flexibly, adaptively, and inclusively. The key is not to be disabled by the effects of surprise- we should plan with the intent of creating capabilities and consequences that are surprise-tolerant. As Colin Gray once advised the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), any strategy starts with the recognition that its authors will be surprised many times in the future. This is not an advisable approach since our grasp of the future is so tenuous. security strategy to demonstrate the utility and application of effective scenario use.Ī sound strategy process is not, or at least should not be, an exercise in eliminating uncertainty and making smart choices based on a clear-cut prediction. This article examines the use of scenarios to enhance the development of defense strategy and explores three critical uncertainties that will frame a number of potential futures for U.S. It’s a great program not only for the alumni to come back and see what the current students are doing … it’s always fun to talk about your research,” Coldren said.Marine provides tactical navigation assistance to pilots in UH-Y Huey helicopter embarked aboard USS Green Bay, during amphibious raid rehearsal as part of Talisman Saber 17, Coral Sea, J(U.S. Senior Kevin Coldren, who presented a project titled, “Using Archaeogeophysical and 3-D Laser Surveying to Visualize an Integrated Landscape,” was particularly animated. These include a project about pro-planetary disks orbiting intermediate-mass and younger stars, a project about understanding the characterization of thin film growth and details about the interactive physics classroom set up in 2006. The event also featured boards in the hallway that provided information about several research projects conducted by current students. “We can have alumni and current students sit at tables and get to ask about their careers and strategies to get there,” he said.Īt the event, Michael Richardson, interim dean for the School of Humanities and Sciences, spoke about the “invaluable research” and “appreciation for the pursuit of knowledge” within the physics department, while Ahren Sadoff, founder of the college’s physics department in 1965, shared stories about its founding and development. The event was organized primarily by Michael “Bodhi” Rogers, professor in the Department of Physics and Astronomy, who has been working to coordinate it for over a year. The celebration included a continental breakfast, welcoming remarks, a networking lunch, a poster session allowing current students to showcase recent research and tours of the Center for Natural Sciences. To celebrate its 50th anniversary, the Ithaca College physics department hosted festivities for about 50 faculty, alumni and students Sept.
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